Why Hurricane Oscar could lead to ‘humanitarian crisis’

October 20

Hurricane Oscar is expected to make landfall in Cuba on Sunday as the island faces an existing power crisis, adding to fears that Oscar may prove to be especially dangerous.

Oscar, a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph as of Sunday morning, already passed through the Southeastern Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center.

NHC forecasters expect the storm to weaken and make a quick U-turn, heading back toward the Bahamas early next week.

Cuba is expected to receive 5 to 10 inches of rain through Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Some areas could see 15 inches.

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Sunday forecast track for Hurricane Oscar from the National Hurricane Center.

Meanwhile, the NHC is also tracking tropical depression Nadine, which is expected to bring heavy rain to southern Mexico.

Fears of ‘humanitarian crisis’

Dangerous storm surge is expected in the southeastern part of the Bahamas Sunday morning, mainly around Great Inagua Island and later on the north shore of Cuba, the NHC forecasted.

Accuweather forecasters fear Oscar could strengthen into a Category 2 storm.

“Heavy rain falling in the steep terrain of southeastern Cuba raises serious concerns about major flash flooding, as well as mudslides and rockslides,” said Jon Porter, a chief meteorologist for AccuWeather, in a statement. “Unfortunately, the combination of these factors may result in a humanitarian crisis in some parts of southeast Cuba should a more intense Oscar make a close pass or even make landfall in Cuba.”

An existing power crisis in Cuba has increased worries about Oscar’s impacts.

On Saturday, the Cuban government restored power to a fifth of the country’s 10 million people after its national grid collapsed twice in 24 hours.

“Hurricane impacts to Cuba are extremely concerning because of the ongoing power grid crisis in Cuba,” said Porter. “Adding a hurricane hit on top of the existing power failure can make the hurricane impact far worse, further risking lives and resulting in challenges in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the hurricane’s impacts.”

The island first lost power after its electrical grid crashed on Friday afternoon when its largest power plant shut down, according to Reuters. Then the grid collapsed again Saturday morning.

Authorities reported the government made progress on restoring power before it announced the grid collapsed again Saturday evening.

Hurricane Oscar pathHurricane Oscar spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Tropical Depression Nadine

The NHC is also tracking a tropical depression that is expected to bring heavy rain to southern Mexico.

As of Sunday morning, no watches or warnings were in effect due to Nadine. The storm is expected to dissipate later Sunday morning.

Track Nadine

Contributing: John Gallas, Diane Pantaleo; USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida; Reuters

Julia is a trending reporter for USA TODAY. You can connect with her on LinkedIn, follow her on X, formerly known as Twitter, Instagram and TikTok: @juliamariegz, or email her at *****@*****.tld

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: Hurricane Oscar could lead to ‘humanitarian crisis’

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