Canada’s condo supply is surging — and it’s not just in Toronto – National

October 9

Hopeful Canadian homebuyers may well have their pick of the litter when it comes to condos in many housing markets across the country, a new report from Re/Max Canada shows.

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The national brokerage said in its national condo outlook released Wednesday that listings in this segment of the market have “soared” in recent months.

A glut of condos in Toronto — now sitting around seven months’ worth of inventory — has been well documented over the summer.

While Re/Max noted that Toronto’s condo listings were up 52.8 per cent year-over-year as of August, the city isn’t alone. B.C.’s Fraser Valley led the way with a 58.7-per cent increase over the same period, with Calgary’s inventory up 52.4 per cent and Ottawa’s rising 44.5 per cent.

The other cities included in the report, Edmonton, Halifax and Vancouver, saw annual gains between 7.3 and 17.7 per cent.

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Re/Max argued that condo sellers have been hitting the market in hopes that buyer demand will return towards the final months of the year, thanks in part to expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.

Housing affordability has seen marginal improvement in some markets this year as mortgage rates decline but home prices hold steady or fall amid slower-than-typical sales activity.

Click to play video: 'Your Money: The financial impacts of a slowing condo market'

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Your Money: The financial impacts of a slowing condo market

The condo market is particularly worth highlighting for first-time and sidelined homebuyers as Re/Max noted it’s not only a “first step” home ownership, but increasingly the “middle step” as well in Canada’s most expensive housing markets.

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In Toronto, the average price of a condo was down two per cent in the first eight months of the year compared to the same period in 2023.

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But in other cities surveyed, Re/Max said “values have held up surprisingly well” against the influx of listings.

Calgary and Edmonton — both high-demand destinations for interprovincial migration — saw average condo prices rise 15 and four per cent year-over-year in the period, respectively. Other markets included in the report reported low-single digit gains in average values.

Edmonton’s condo sales levels were up 37 per cent annually in the first eight months of 2024, representing the city’s best performance in the past five years, Re/Max noted. The brokerage pointed to an uptick in investor activity in Edmonton as bucking the national trend.

Like would-be buyers drawn to the Albertan capital for its relative affordability, out-of-province investors also see deals to be had in Edmonton’s condo market.

“Savvy investors in Edmonton have been actively revitalizing tired condominium stock and subsequently renting it out for top dollar,” the report read.

Outside of sellers markets in Alberta and other hot pockets in still-active neighbourhoods, Re/Max Canada president Christopher Alexander positioned the current state of the condo market as “the calm before the storm.”

Click to play video: 'Housing policies not increasing affordability says new report'

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With Re/Max anticipating a busier spring 2025, Alexander argued that “aspiring condominium buyers” now have a short window where they’ll face less competition for investors for what’s becoming a glut of supply in many markets.

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“With values set to rise, this is arguably the most favourable climate condominiums buyers have seen in recent years,” he said in a statement.

While Re/Max argues condo prices have bottomed out in Toronto, other experts predict there could be further yet to fall for home values in city’s condo market.

TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi said in a late September report that he expects a mid-to-high-single digit drop in Toronto’s average condo prices through to the early part of next year.

“The relatively subdued sales recovery means that it will likely take several months to soak up these inventories, and further price concessions could be required to facilitate the process,” he wrote.

An RBC housing forecast released Wednesday also estimates that Toronto condo prices have further to fall in the near-term.

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