China’s rally takes a breather to wait on stimulus

October 9

Chinese shares fell on Wednesday and commodities nursed sharp losses as investors tempered enthusiasm for a Chinese economic recovery, while broader markets steadied on expectations that the US economy can avoid recession and support global demand.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.6 per cent after the central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points and sounded downbeat about the economic outlook, leaving the door open to more cuts.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.6 per cent as Hong Kong shares rebounded about 2.0 per cent after notching their heaviest fall since 2008 the day before.

Hong Kong markets tanked on Tuesday, mainland shares were knocked from highs and commodities from oil to metals slid when a news conference from China’s National Development and Reform Commission yielded no major new stimulus details.

The Shanghai Composite and blue-chip CSI300 slumped around 3.0 per cent on Wednesday.

Brent crude futures, which fell 4.6 per cent overnight, steadied at $US77.79 ($A115.30) a barrel. Iron ore found support at $US106 ($A157) in Singapore after a 5.0 per cent slide on Tuesday.

“The disappointment, while understandable, appears premature and misguided,” Mizuho’s head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan, Vishnu Varathan, said in a note to clients.

“Fact is, it is not the NDRC’s place to provide details on fiscal stimulus (or a) further monetary policy push.”

Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.0 per cent, with shares in convenience store Seven & I Holdings leaping after Bloomberg News reported Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard would raise its buyout offer.

US equity futures were broadly steady in Asia, following solid gains in cash trade overnight as a handful of Federal Reserve officials sounded positive about the prospects of managing interest rate levels for a soft economic landing.

Influential New York Fed President John Williams told the Financial Times that last week’s unexpectedly strong jobs report for September showed the economy was healthy, while falling inflation left room for rates to be lowered over time.

Traders had dialled back expectations the Fed could again cut rates by 50 bps in November and currently price about an 88 per cent chance of a 25 bp cut.

Treasuries steadied overnight following recent selling, leaving US two-year yields at 3.96 per cent and 10-year yields at 4.01 per cent.

The US dollar has drawn support from higher yields and inched up to trade at $US1.0968 ($A1.6256) per euro and held steady at 148.25 yen. The Australian dollar was marginally weaker at $US0.6738 ($A0.9987) and traders assessed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as preparing for further cuts ahead.

At $US0.6096 ($A0.9035) the kiwi was trading at a seven-week low and testing its 200-day moving average.

“While today’s meeting did not provide updated forecasts and wasn’t accompanied by a press conference, the forward guidance in the decision statement sounded dovish, allowing the RBNZ the flexibility to cut rates again before year-end,” said IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting – where US rates were cut 50 bps – are due later in the session, along with appearances from the Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan and Mary Daly.

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