All eyes on iron ore majors after China saps the rally

October 8

Iron ore slumped from a five-month high and base metals fell, after a hotly anticipated briefing by China’s top economic planner on Tuesday ended without new pledges to boost government spending.

Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission offered little to investors, who had been expecting more stimulus measures on China’s first day back from a week-long public holiday.

Iron ore futures in Singapore fell more than 5 per cent after rising by nearly that amount ahead of the briefing. Copper dropped to its lowest in two weeks in a sharp sell-off across base metals, while investor disappointment was reflected across wider Chinese markets.

“There had been talk that the NDRC may announce trillions of yuan in stimulus, but it came out with nothing at all,” said Hang Jiang, head of trading at Yonggang Resources in Shanghai.

BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue all posted strong share price gains early on Tuesday morning, which were abruptly reversed after the CNDRC briefing. Rio finished the day down 0.4 per cent, BHP 2.4 per cent and Fortescue was the biggest loser with a 5.3 per cent decline.

Iron ore futures are still up almost a fifth from late-September on optimism that Beijing’s earlier moves to boost the economy would end a period of deep gloom for China’s steel industry. Demand for the steelmaking ingredient has suffered amid a years-long property crisis.

Investors are still looking for more concrete signs that the government’s pledges will feed through to real economic activity. The NDRC officials said they would speed up spending, but their comments on investment and support for low-income groups were largely reiterations of previous pledges.

“The stimulus from China so far is not going to yield a significant turnaround for base metals,” Yonggang’s Jiang said. “We need to see stimulus feed into a real pickup in consumption before we can see big price rallies.”

Not enough

Copper and other metals have now wiped out most of their gains since Beijing rolled out a blitz of policy measures in the days before China’s Golden Week break. Tuesday morning’s briefing by the NDRC was announced over the weekend, triggering a wave of speculation about additional pro-growth moves.

Investors are “disappointed” after putting such high expectations on the NDRC briefing, said Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Sustaining recent price gains requires more fund inflows, she said.

Iron ore fell 5.1 per cent to $US105.10 a tonne on the Singapore Exchange overnight Tuesday. Copper dropped 1.7 per cent to $US9766/t on the London Metal Exchange, heading for its lowest close since September 23. Aluminium, zinc, nickel, lead and tin all lost more than 2 per cent.

Base metals should get support from the “material shift in China policy” since last month, Citigroup said in a note ahead of the NDRC briefing. But other global risks — from the US election to weak European growth and Middle East conflicts — would likely keep a lid on prices beyond the near term, they said.

Bloomberg

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