Wall Street giants up bets on China markets amid stimulus promise

October 8

Goldman Sachs is the latest in a flurry of calls to upgrade China stocks after the Asian giant’s recent wave of stimulus measures. The Wall Street bank raised its call on China stocks to an overweight rating in an Oct. 5 note, adding that this market is set to soar further. Goldman predicts that Chinese stocks could even jump a further 15% to 20%, given the powerful comeback rally that has already occurred. It says the MSCI China index could have another 15% upside, and the CSI 300 index could enjoy a further 18% upside. Since Sept. 23, the CSI 300 has already rallied 25.5%, while the Hang Seng index has soared around 26%. That comes after China shares’ protracted slump for the past few years , dragged down by growth concerns and its long-standing property debt crisis. In a Monday note, Citi also increased its price target for Chinese stocks. It raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng index to 26,000, implying upside of 24%, and to 28,000 by end-2025, a 23% upside. In late September, China’s central bank announced a slew of measures to shore up economic growth, including cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of cash that banks hold by 50 basis points. It also announced plans for interest rate cuts. That also followed a high-level meeting where top leaders called for halting the property market decline, and strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. Following that, Wall Street started getting bullish on those stocks again, with Morgan Stanley predicting Chinese stocks are set to rally 10% and more. BlackRock Investment Institute, too, upgraded China stocks in a Sept. 30 note on expectations of fiscal stimulus. It’s now “modestly overweight” on China. “Major fiscal stimulus may be coming and prompt investors to step in given Chinese stocks are at a deep discount to DM shares,” it said. “Yet we stay ready to pivot. We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges.” That U-turn comes after many Wall Street banks and other analysts downgraded China stocks in the past few years, with only a rare few fund managers sticking to their China conviction stance. But have those calls to upgrade them again — after they have already rallied — come too late? “The fact that the Chinese equity markets surge is at least attributable, and flattered by, scope for catch-up,” said Vishnu Varathan, managing director of Mizuho Securities. “That’s to say, opportunism in the context of “low-hanging” fruits, rather than self-sustaining confidence, may be exaggerating market-implied, optimism.” He warned that details on the stimulus measures “remain scant.” Doubts may yet surface, given questions over whether and how the stimulus measures are fully funded, and if a “fundamentally self-sustaining” consumer confidence might be restored beyond just a “fleeting” reflex. Indeed, Goldman itself also pointed to uncertainty even as it believes in further upside. “There is not enough information at this juncture to assert that a structural bull market has begun,” it said, pointing to China’s challenges, such as those its property sector faces, debt levels and low domestic consumption. “However, there are sound reasons to argue for additional equity market gains,” Goldman said, adding that this market is oversold and undervalued.

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