Forecasters urge South MS to watch system in Caribbean that could enter Gulf of Mexico

October 1

A tropical system could form again in the Gulf of Mexico this week, days after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida and killed more than 100 people as its floodwaters raged through the southeast.

Coastal towns in Florida’s Big Bend are flattened. Mountain cities in North Carolina are drowned. But this week, forecasters asked weary Gulf Coast residents to watch a large area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Forecasts show it could develop in the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.

Some news was good: Strong winds high in the atmosphere could stifle the system’s future strength.

But forecasters also said the system could develop in roughly the same spot as Helene, which could again send a storm toward the northeast Gulf Coast.

“It is still too early to know the final destination or intensity,” Alabama meteorologist James Spann wrote on social media. He said some storm models show the system could near Florida. “But again,” Spann said, “we simply don’t know how it plays out at this point.”

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of low-pressure in the Caribbean Sea that has a 40 percent chance of development within seven days. Forecasters are also watching four systems in the Atlantic. None are immediately expected to near land.

South MS monitoring system

It is unclear if the system would impact the Mississippi Coast. The National Weather Service in Slidell said it was still in a “monitoring phase.”

The National Hurricane Center said the system had a 40 percent chance of developing within seven days. Forecasters had decreased its development chances slightly since the weekend.

The system was creating thunderstorms on Monday in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It could slowly develop this week over the northwest Caribbean Sea and near the southern Gulf of Mexico in a few days, forecasters said.

The National Hurricane Center urged residents along the northwest Caribbean and U.S. Gulf Coast to watch the system.

Any development would likely begin late this week, forecasters said. In a Monday newsletter, Florida meteorologist Michael Lowry said the system could become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm that may reach the northern Gulf Coast or Florida. But he said it would likely stay “broad and messy.”

“For now,” Lowry wrote, “development isn’t a slam dunk.”

The system is in the Central American Gyre — a large low-pressure area that forms over Central America in the spring and fall. It creates storms and spin from the eastern Pacific into the Caribbean, and can unleash hurricanes and tropical storms near the end of hurricane season.

Forecasters said another system could form in the Gyre on the west side of Mexico. That system could move east of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this week and may merge with the Caribbean system by the weekend, Lowry said.

Another area of low pressure, seen in yellow, in the Central American Gyre may move east of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this week. It could merge with another low-pressure area in the Caribbean Sea by the weekend, forecasters said.

Busy Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is watching four more systems in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Isaac will soon dissipate, forecasters said, and will not threaten land. It peaked as a Category 2 storm in open water.

Tropical Depression Joyce is also in the open Atlantic and not expected to strike land. It was a tropical storm over the weekend but will also likely dissipate soon because of wind shear, forecasters said.

Tropical Storm Kirk formed Monday morning and could strengthen this week over the open Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said. Kirk between Africa and the Caribbean Islands and could become a major hurricane next week. But forecasters said it will turn north and is unlikely to impact land.

A disturbance off the coast of Africa also has an 80 percent chance of formation in seven days.

“After a very unusual lull,” Lowry said, “the Atlantic is now firing on all cylinders.”

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