Shelby County, Tennessee’s most populous county, losing people

September 28

MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Shelby County, Tennessee’s most populous county with more than 916,000 residents in 2022, is facing an exodus, as thousands are leaving the area.

Last year, over 6,300 people left the area, contributing to a decline of nearly 20,000 residents since 2020.

Tim Kuhn, director of the Tennessee State Data Center at University of Tennessee, says the population trend for Shelby County has not been the trend for the rest of the state.

Since 1960, Tennessee has added a million people every 20 years, according to the State Data Center.

Tennessee population boom largely driven by people moving from other states, research finds

“Shelby County is kind of moving in another direction for the state of Tennessee as a whole, since 2020 is having a strong start to the 2020 decade; 77,000 people added last year and about 90,000 added the year before,” he said.

UT’s data reveals the city of Memphis is the epicenter of this decline with over 16,786 residents leaving since 2020.

“The population in Shelby County has declined every year according to the population estimate except for one since 2012. It’s kind of been a slow decrease for the area. A good portion of that, though it’s probably tied to decreases in population in Memphis itself,” Kuhn said.

Since 2012, the county has lost over 63,000 residents, according to the University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research. They did not study the reasons for the decline.

Suburbs like Bartlett and Germantown also saw significant declines, while Arlington, Lakeland, and Millington experienced modest growth.

Despite this, researchers at University of Tennessee say Shelby County remains Tennessee’s most populous county. But they predict the decline in Shelby county’s population to continue for the next 10 years.

“For Shelby County we’re looking at an annual decrease for about 2,000 people a year according to those projections, seeing a slow but steady decline that will lower its population by another 10- or 20,000 people by the end of the decade,” Kuhn said.

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