Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: What to do with Indiana?

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Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: What to do with Indiana?

Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: What to do with Indiana?

Two top-five teams lost just days after the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season were released, so there should be a Top 25 shake-up by the selection committee with the second rankings on Tuesday night. Just how much they change after Georgia and Miami lost is the question.

My College Football Playoff projections model predicts what the committee is likely to do with its rankings each week. Last week, my projected rankings had 24 of the top 25 teams (the only non-ranked team was Missouri, which I had 26th), so it did a pretty good job of identifying the Top 25. What about precision? The model predicted all of the top 17 teams’ rankings within two spots. The first big miss came when it projected Clemson and Army at 18th and 19th, respectively, while the committee had them at 23rd and 25th. Overall, 22 of the 25 teams were within two spots, 16 were within one spot and nine were exactly right, including seven of the top 12.

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This is a new week and a new test, as teams are going to be moving around a bunch at the top. So let’s take another stab at projecting what the committee will do with the rankings.

Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 11

Rk	Team	Record	SOS	AP poll
1		10-0	51	1
2		8-1	35	2
3		8-1	17	4
4		8-1	80	3
5		10-0	81	5
6		8-1	70	6
7		9-0	54	7
8		8-1	56	8
9		7-2	3	9
10		8-2	39	10
11		7-2	1	11
12		9-1	68	12
13		8-1	65	14
14		7-2	21	15
15		8-1	85	13
16		7-2	47	17
17		7-2	41	20
18		7-2	52	18
19		9-0	132	16
20		8-1	93	19
21		6-3	7	21
22		6-3	5	23
23		6-3	13	22
24		7-2	32	24
25		7-2	60	NR

Next five: Arizona State, Pitt, Tulane, UNLV, Illinois

Biggest question: How is Indiana being evaluated?

Indiana is fresh off a victory over Michigan, easily one of its best wins of the season but also its closest. For the first time in 10 games, the Hoosiers won by single digits, hanging on to win 20-15 despite having just 18 yards of total offense in the second half. Indiana has already crashed the AP top five for the first time since 1967. It is 10-0 for the first time ever and will be in the mix for a top-five ranking Tuesday after it was eighth in last week’s CFP rankings. The reason it’s not a surefire top-five team is because its strength of schedule, in my projections, ranks 81st. How much will that matter?

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The Hoosiers’ Playoff positioning will ultimately be determined by how they perform against Ohio State in Columbus on Nov. 23 after they’re idle this week. If that’s a competitive game, you can almost guarantee the Hoosiers a spot in the CFP. But if it’s a blowout, some think they don’t have the resume to deserve or guarantee an at-large bid. And while I won’t defend their schedule strength, I don’t think enough attention is brought to some other CFP contenders.

According to my projections, Texas has played the 80th toughest schedule and Tennessee the 70th. Now, there are some differences across strength of schedule metrics from various sources, but Tennessee’s best win is Alabama and its second best win is arguably Kentucky (and it lost to Arkansas). Texas’ best win is probably Vanderbilt or Michigan.

Indiana will likely finish the season with the easiest schedule among the contenders, but I don’t think it’s as egregious as some have been making it out to be. A good performance against Ohio State should give the Hoosiers not only a Playoff bid, but an opportunity to host a game in the first round.

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What the 12-team bracket would look like

The bracket below is based on the projected selection committee rankings for Nov. 11. Find my projections for the final bracket here.

(Photo of Curt Cignetti: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)

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