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NFL Power Rankings Week 11: Chiefs back at No. 1, plus quarterback confidence rankings

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NFL Power Rankings Week 11: Chiefs back at No. 1, plus quarterback confidence rankings

NFL Power Rankings Week 11: Chiefs back at No. 1, plus quarterback confidence rankings

The Week 11 NFL Power Rankings are checking in on the most important position in the game — quarterbacks.

It’s been a weird year for the most high-profile position in the game. The best quarterback in the league has not been that impressive. A can’t-miss prospect is missing by a lot. A future Hall of Famer is finishing his career on fumes. And Russell Wilson is 3-0.

We’re rating every team’s confidence in its quarterback situation from 1 through 10, and you’ll notice we’re leaning heavily on EPA-per-dropback statistics provided by TruMedia. That’s simply how many expected points a quarterback generates each time he intends to throw. It’s not a perfect statistic, but it’s pretty widely considered the best way to measure overall efficiency at the position.

Our faith in these teams’ quarterbacks affected the rankings this week in several spots, including at the top, where a familiar face is back despite barely winning once again.

Last week: 2

Sunday: Beat Denver Broncos 16-14

QB confidence rating: 10

Patrick Mahomes is 12th in the league in EPA per dropback (.12), 17th in passer rating and has thrown almost as many interceptions as touchdowns (nine to 12). That passer rating is on pace to be the worst of his career. Doesn’t matter. He’s still the player every team in the league would trade their guy for in a minute. Two more wins will give him 100 for his career counting the regular season and playoffs. He’s also a three-time Super Bowl champion, two-time MVP and the reason the Chiefs are the title favorite again this year regardless of his numbers.

Up next: at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Last week: 1

Sunday: Beat Houston Texans 26-23

QB confidence rating: 7

This could be a nine, but there’s always a concern with Jared Goff that something bad is lurking around the next corner. For instance, a five-interception game like he had Sunday night against the Texans. That’s more interceptions than he had in the first eight games of the season combined. The other knock on Goff is his offensive coordinator and teammates make it easy on him. His air yards per attempt (6.9) rank 29th in the league. Still, his EPA per dropback (.16) ranks eighth in the league and can’t be dismissed.

Up next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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Last week: 3

Thursday: Beat Cincinnati Bengals 35-34

QB confidence rating: 9

The only reason this isn’t a 10 is Lamar Jackson’s 2-4 career record in the playoffs. Jackson is the frontrunner for NFL MVP, which would be his third. Only Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have done that, and Jackson is only 27 years old. He leads the league in EPA per dropback by a wide margin (.37). Rodgers is the only player since 2010 to top that number in a season. His .40 in 2011 earned him the MVP trophy.

Up next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

4. Buffalo Bills (8-2)

Last week: 4

Sunday: Beat Indianapolis Colts 30-20

QB confidence rating: 8

Josh Allen has scored 58 non-passing touchdowns since being drafted in 2018. That’s 12th in the NFL in that period. He has thrown 184 touchdown passes in that span, which ranks third. That’s 242 times he’s put the Bills in the end zone. This year, he’s seventh in EPA per dropback and has thrown 17 touchdowns against just four interceptions.

Up next: vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Last week: 8

Sunday: Beat Dallas Cowboys 34-6

QB confidence rating: 7

The Eagles have won five straight, and in that stretch, Jalen Hurts is fifth in EPA per dropback (.20) and third in passer rating (126.1). Against the Cowboys, he was 7-for-9 for 115 yards and two touchdowns while under pressure, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s also leading maybe the best rushing attack in the league. He had 56 yards and two touchdowns on the ground Sunday.

Up next: vs. Washington Commanders, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

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6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)

Last week: 9

Sunday: Beat Washington Commanders 28-27

QB confidence rating: 4

Pittsburgh is not in this position because of its quarterback play, but Russell Wilson deserves some credit for being 3-0 since taking the job from Justin Fields. Wilson’s chuck-it-deep style has been a nice fit with George Pickens and the Steelers. The veteran quarterback is third in air yards per attempt (9.9) since Week 7, and his .19 EPA per dropback is on pace to be his best since the 2015 season.

Up next: vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Last week: 6

Sunday: Bye

QB confidence rating: 6

Jordan Love’s problem, and problem may be a relative word in this context, is that he just signed a $220 million contract, and he has thrown an NFL-high 10 interceptions. He’s 19th in EPA per dropback (.02), and his season has to have Green Bay fans a little worried that he’s a good quarterback who had an elite finish to the 2023 season rather than an elite quarterback.

Up next: at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Last week: 7

Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 12-7

QB confidence rating: 5

Sunday was the game the Sam Darnold skeptics have been waiting for. Darnold threw three interceptions and had a passer rating of 48.2 against a Jacksonville defense that had been very generous to opponents all season. Darnold is 21st in EPA per dropback (.01). After the first month of the season, he was 11th (.09), but fading in the second half has been a hallmark of Darnold’s career. It appears now more than ever that he’s just keeping the job warm for J.J. McCarthy (No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft), who suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp.

Up next: at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

9. Washington Commanders (7-3)

Last week: 5

Sunday: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 28-27

QB confidence rating: 7

Jayden Daniels was just average on Sunday against the Steelers. It’s about time. The rookie was starting to look like he’d never stub his toe. Daniels completed 50 percent of his passes and had the second negative EPA game of his career. Still, he’s second in the NFL in EPA per dropback (.22) behind only Lamar Jackson. He is second in quarterback rushing behind Jackson as well, prompting a postgame question comparing the rookie to the reigning MVP. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin quickly shut that down.

Up next: at Philadelphia Eagles, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Last week: 15

Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 27-17

QB confidence rating: 8

Justin Herbert’s numbers aren’t flashy, but he might be your favorite quarterback evaluator’s favorite quarterback. Herbert threw 18 passes Sunday but rolled up a 123.1 passer rating and is now sixth in that category among qualified passes (103.2). After toiling in relative obscurity for the first four years of his career, Herbert has a chance to get into the national conversation this year if the Chargers keep winning.

Up next: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

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Last week: 16

Sunday: Beat New York Jets 31-6

QB confidence rating: 7

Kyler Murray completed 22 of 24 passes Sunday, including his last 17, and it wasn’t because he was throwing to wide-open receivers all day. The odds of completing his final 17 passes based on their expected completion percentage was .245 percent, according to Next Gen Stats. Murray is 11th in EPA per dropback at .13, which is the best number of his career, and with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, he’s on pace to have the best touchdown-to-interception ratio of his career.

Up next: Bye

Last week: 10

Sunday: Beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20

QB confidence rating: 7

It feels like Brock Purdy has reached an important milestone this season. There’s no longer a daily debate about whether he’s a great quarterback or merely the product of his environment. He’s just playing mostly good football. Purdy is sixth in EPA per dropback (.18) and second in air yards per attempt (9.1). Since he was drafted in 2022, he leads the NFL in passer rating (106.9). On Sunday, he threw for 353 yards and was 4-for-5 for 39 yards on the 49ers’ game-winning drive.

Up next: vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

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13. Houston Texans (6-4)

Last week: 12

Sunday: Lost to Detroit Lions 26-23

QB confidence rating: 7

C.J. Stroud’s season now officially qualifies as a sophomore slump. He had a 64.2 passer rating and threw two interceptions Sunday night and lost despite a five-interception game from his opponent. Stroud is 24th in EPA per dropback (minus-.01). As a rookie, he finished sixth (.11). Houston has lost two in a row and three of its last four.

Up next: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Last week: 11

Sunday: Lost to New Orleans Saints 20-17

QB confidence rating: 7

Kirk Cousins is on track to be in the Comeback Player of the Year conversation, but his campaign took a hit Sunday as Cousins failed to throw a touchdown pass against the Saints for the second time this season. Those are the only two games in which Cousins hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his first year with the Falcons. He’s 10th in EPA per dropback (.13) and has his team in first place in the NFC South. If you took away the two games against New Orleans, Cousins would be sixth in EPA per dropback (.17).

Up next: at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)

Last week: 18

Thursday: Lost to Baltimore Ravens 35-34

QB confidence rating: 8

This losing record isn’t Joe Burrow’s fault. The fifth-year quarterback hasn’t played this well since he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. Burrow is seventh in EPA per dropback (.17) and third in passer rating (108.1) after completing 34 of 56 passes for 428 yards and four touchdowns while losing a thriller against Lamar Jackson on Thursday night. Those are both the second-best marks of his career. See, not his fault.

Up next: at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)

Last week: 13

Sunday: Lost to San Francisco 49ers 23-20

QB confidence rating: 7

Baker Mayfield leads the NFL with 24 touchdown passes. That’s only four short of his career high, which he set last year in Tampa. His EPA per dropback (.11) ranks 13th and is tied for the best mark of his career. Mayfield is trying to keep the Buccaneers afloat without receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and he almost did it Sunday against the defending NFC champions despite passing for only 116 yards.

Up next: Bye

17. Denver Broncos (5-5)

Last week: 14

Sunday: Lost to Kansas City Chiefs 16-14

QB confidence rating: 6

Rookie Bo Nix had a higher passer rating than his counterpoint Sunday, which is notable because his counterpoint was Patrick Mahomes. Nix was 22-for-30 for 215 yards and two touchdowns and posted a .36 EPA, which is the highest mark of his 10-start NFL career. In four of Nix’s first five games, he posted a negative EPA. In three of the last five games, he’s been in positive numbers. He still ranks 29th overall in EPA (minus-.11), but he’s moving in the right direction. He also has rushed for 290 yards and four touchdowns.

Up next: vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

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Last week: 17

Monday: Lost to Miami Dolphins 23-15

QB confidence rating: 7

This is not Matthew Stafford’s best season. He has thrown seven interceptions, including one in each of the last six games. He had 293 passing yards Monday night but couldn’t get the Rams into the end zone. Stafford, the No. 1 pick in 2009, is 26th in EPA per dropback (minus-.03), which is the third-worst number of his career. Still, even at 36 years old, Stafford is a guy lots of coaches would pick to win them one game.

Up next: at New England Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

19. Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

Last week: 19

Sunday: Bye

QB confidence rating: 6

Since Geno Smith’s bounce-back 2022 season, his passer rating is going in the wrong direction. That year it was 103, the highest mark of his career as a starter. It fell to 92.1 last season and currently sits at 88.6. Smith isn’t playing poorly. He’s 16th in EPA per dropback (0.3), but it’s becoming clear that Seattle needs peak Geno to be competitive. An 11-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio is not peak Geno.

Up next: at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

20. Miami Dolphins (3-6)

Last week: 27

Monday: Beat Los Angeles Rams 23-15

QB confidence rating: 6

By the numbers, Tua Tagovailoa is playing great. He is eighth in EPA per dropback (.14), and he’s completing more than 70 percent of his passes. However, Monday night’s win, in which he was 20-for-28 for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception, improved his record as a starter this season to just 2-3. Granted, those losses came to Buffalo (twice) and Arizona, but there’s still something missing from this offense, and Tagovailoa is the player most responsible for getting that fixed.

Up next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

21. Indianapolis Colts (4-6)

Last week: 21

Sunday: Lost to Buffalo Bills 30-20

QB confidence rating: 3

Anthony Richardson was trending on X early in the day Sunday. That’s not a good sign considering he was benched two weeks ago. Veteran Joe Flacco hasn’t backed up the team’s decision to make that move. Flacco threw three interceptions Sunday and is 0-2 since replacing Richardson. Coach Shane Steichen says the veteran will remain the starter “until I say otherwise.” That should probably be soon. Developing a young player, even one with a 44.4 completion percentage, makes more sense than continuing with Flacco, who is 21st in EPA per dropback.

Up next: at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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Drake Maye got the best of fellow rookie Caleb Williams on Sunday and is the Patriots’ biggest reason for hope at the moment. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

22. New England Patriots (3-7)

Last week: 29

Sunday: Beat Chicago Bears 19-3

QB confidence rating: 7

Drake Maye may be overrated here, but he gets a bump because he’s the only reason for hope in New England at the moment. Maye looked particularly good in comparison to fellow rookie Caleb Williams on Sunday. The Patriots have won two of their last three games, and Maye is 25th in EPA per dropback (minus-.02). He’s also averaging 38.8 rushing yards per game, which is fifth among quarterbacks.

Up next: vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

23. Chicago Bears (4-5)

Last week: 20

Sunday: Lost to New England Patriots 19-3

QB confidence rating: 5

Is it too early for Bears fans to panic about Caleb Williams? No, probably not. This year’s top pick has three straight games with a negative EPA, and he’s 33rd in that category for the season (minus-.13). He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 6. His completion percentage (60.5) ranks 32nd. His sack percentage (11.4) is 33rd and a sign that not only is Chicago’s offensive line not as good as expected but that Williams is taking too long to get the ball out of his hands. Things are not good.

Up next: vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

24. New York Jets (3-7)

Last week: 22

Sunday: Lost to Arizona Cardinals 31-6

QB confidence rating: 2

The Jets bet their present and future on Aaron Rodgers having one more run in him. They’re losing that bet badly. Rodgers is 26th in EPA per dropback (minus-.02), 29th in completion percentage (62.4) and 25th in yards per attempt (6.4). On Sunday, he threw for 151, no touchdowns and completed only two passes that traveled more than 7 yards, and the Jets couldn’t manage a touchdown. If this is Rodgers’ last season, it looks like it will be a somber one.

Up next: vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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25. Dallas Cowboys (3-6)

Last week: 23

Sunday: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles 34-6

QB confidence rating: 6

Dak Prescott is 31 years old, and he could be about to have season-ending surgery to repair a hamstring that is torn off the bone. It wasn’t going great when Prescott was healthy. He’s 27th in EPA per dropback (minus-.05), which is not what the Cowboys were expecting when they made him the highest-paid player in the NFL in the offseason at $60 million annually. Cooper Rush, Dallas’ primary backup since 2021, passed for 45 yards on Sunday, and Trey Lance had 21 yards and one interception on six passes as the Cowboys dropped their fourth straight.

Up next: vs. Houston Texans, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

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26. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

Last week: 26

Sunday: Bye

QB confidence rating: 2

How much influence will new Raiders minority owner Tom Brady have on which quarterback Las Vegas drafts in April? You’d think a lot. There seems to be little question the Raiders are going to be in the quarterback market. Current starting quarterback Gardner Minshew II, if he does in fact hang on to the starting job after the bye week, is 30th in EPA (minus-.11). After that, the depth chart is Desmond Ridder and Aidan O’Connell.

Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Last week: 31

Sunday: Beat New York Giants 20-17

QB confidence rating: 3

The Panthers have won two in a row with Bryce Young as their starting quarterback, but it’s probably a mirage. The wins have come over the Saints and Giants, and the former No. 1 pick hasn’t been the driving force in either victory. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with a minus-.10 EPA per dropback in those two games. Young only took back the starting job because of an Andy Dalton injury, and these last two weeks probably didn’t change the organization’s mind much.

Up next: Bye

28. New Orleans Saints (3-7)

Last week: 32

Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 20-17

QB confidence rating: 5

The Saints appear to be linked to Derek Carr through at least 2025 because of his contract. That comes with a ceiling, but it comes with a floor, too. Carr passed for 269 yards and two touchdowns to newly acquired Marquez Valdes-Scantling on Sunday, and he is ninth in EPA per dropback (.13) this season. That’s on pace to be the second-best mark of his career and his best since 2019.

Up next: vs. Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

29. New York Giants (2-8)

Last week: 25

Sunday: Lost to Carolina Panthers 20-17

QB confidence rating: 2

The best news for the Giants is they can move on from Daniel Jones after this season for the low, low price of $22 million in dead money. It’s been time to move on for a while. Jones threw 37 passes Sunday and had only 190 yards and two interceptions to show for it. For the season, he’s 28th in EPA per dropback (minus-.08). For his career, which has spanned six long years as the starter in New York, he’s 24-44-1. He’s had only one winning season and has never gotten to 10 wins.

Up next: Bye

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The Giants are getting worse, so what is the case for retaining Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen?

30. Cleveland Browns (2-7)

Last week: 24

Sunday: Bye

QB confidence rating: 1

Deshaun Watson’s injury allowed Cleveland to change the subject from its controversial quarterback for now, but the conversation is coming back. Watson’s fully guaranteed deal means there’s no easy or inexpensive way to move past him. The Browns can take a small country’s GDP worth of dead money, have a backup quarterback with a $72 million cap hit next year or start Watson again in 2025. Amazingly, the third option may be the most palatable, even though he posted a minus-.25 EPA per dropback this season, which ranks 37th among qualifying quarterbacks.

Up next: at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

31. Tennessee Titans (2-7)

Last week: 28

Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Chargers 27-17

QB confidence rating: 2

The only reason Tennessee gets a two is because only Cleveland is getting a one. The Titans aren’t in much better shape, but at least they have answered the question they came into the season asking. Is Will Levis the starter of the future? No. Levis was fine Sunday, throwing for 175 yards and two touchdowns, but Tennessee fans are probably hoping that doesn’t provide the team with false hope. The game managed to even up his touchdown-to-interception ratio at seven to seven for the season. Levis is 36th in EPA (minus-.22).

Up next: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)

Last week: 30

Sunday: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 12-7

QB confidence rating: 4

The good news from Sunday? Mac Jones’ 14-for-22, 111-yard, two-interception day should make Jacksonville fans feel better about Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars’ regular starter may be headed for season-ending shoulder surgery, which might not be the worst thing considering this is a lost season in Jacksonville and Lawrence could use a reset. He has underplayed expectations since being drafted No. 1 in 2021, ranking 25th since then in EPA per dropback (.00). He had 11 touchdowns and six interceptions this season before being sidelined last week.

Up next: at Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)




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