Better to stay prudent than bask in the rally

November 12

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Friday, November 8, 2024.

Source: NYSE

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Record closing levelsU.S. markets traded higher Monday. The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a fresh closing high above 44,000. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index jumped 1.13%. The U.K. government sold more of its stake in NatWest. That “vote of confidence,” as an analyst put it, pushed up U.K. bank shares.

Frenzy in crypto worldBitcoin broke another record Monday, rising 12.1% to $88,684.00, according to Coin Metrics. It’s so much in demand that the iShares Bitcoin Trust, a bitcoin ETF, has surpassed the iShares Gold Trust, in terms of assets managed. Separately, the estate of crypto exchange FTX sued Binance and its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, over a “fraudulent” share deal.

‘Most pro-stock market president’President-elect Donald Trump is the “most pro-stock market president” the U.S. has had in its history, Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, told CNBC. Trump measures his success by the performance of the stock market, so it’s “unlikely he’s going to implement policies” that will be bad for it, Siegel said.

Getting around Trump’s tariffsEuropean countries are scrambling to work out the best response to Trump’s pledge of a universal tariff of 10% to 20% on all U.S. imports. Countermeasures could include deeper integration into regional markets and introduction of tariffs, said analysts, adding that boosting American imports to secure an exception from tariffs could also be an option.

[PRO] Overheating rally?After the U.S. presidential election, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had their best week in around a year. Some think the rally is getting ahead of itself, writes CNBC Pro’s Fred Imbert. A Wall Street analyst pointed out that, according to history, one ostensibly bullish sign actually portends retreats in the near term.

The bottom line

The stock market is riding high on Trump’s election victory.

The S&P 500 ticked up 0.1% to close at 6,001.35, the first time it’s ended the day above 6,000. Likewise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after adding 0.69%, closed at a record of 44,293.69, its first close above 44,000.

While Tesla’s rally sees no signs of stopping — shares popped almost 9% yesterday — other tech giants such as Apple and Microsoft have seen shares slip.

That caused the Nasdaq Composite to underperform the S&P and Dow. The tech-heavy index eked out a 0.06% gain.

The postelection stock rally, however, is likely to stay strong for now.

“The Republicans’ decisive win has ignited ‘animal spirits,’ despite already lofty expectations,” wrote Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett in a Monday note.

But whether the good vibes are the healthy flood of endorphins after a run, or the alcoholic buzz that will lead to a hangover, is still an open question.

Amid such uncertainty, investors “could well benefit from practicing patience and avoiding jumping to conclusions as to how the election outcome will affect the markets,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.

“We favor broad diversification tuned more to cyclical and secular trends that remain in place for now,” he added.

Likewise, Shalett advocates a “balanced stance” for investors, and cautions they avoid jumping to conclusions on whether the surge in stocks is signaling stronger economic growth.

So, it remains to be seen if the rally will fizzle out once the initial election euphoria wears off, or the market frenzy portends a longer-term phenomenon.

It’s hard to go wrong following the age-old rules for investing in the stock market: Be in it for the long term, diversify and look at fundamentals like earnings and valuation.

— CNBC’s Brian Evans and Alex Harring contributed to this report.

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