The sky is falling on the Bears, but should we be shocked? Sando’s Pick Six

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The sky is falling on the Bears, but should we be shocked? Sando’s Pick Six

The sky is falling on the Bears, but should we be shocked? Sando’s Pick Six

The questions flew toward Chicago Bears coach Matt Eberflus like poison-tipped arrows after the previously 2-7 New England Patriots embarrassed his team 19-3 at Soldier Field in Week 10.

“How do you defend your work as head coach when it looks this bad?” one reporter asked.

If that wasn’t pointed enough, try this one: “Ultimately, you are going to be held accountable to that, perhaps maybe even to the point of termination. Are you willing to be fired without ever exploring the possibility that the offense could be better with better game planning and play calling by changing the coordinator?”

As angst rises in Chicago following what could be a fateful Bears defeat, the Pick Six column dives into the team’s predicament. We’ll address the offensive coordinator change Eberflus would not rule out, Caleb Williams’ 38-sack start, culpability beyond the coaching staff and organizational dynamics likely to limit the team’s options if this season does lead to a head-coaching change. We’ll also raise a contrarian possibility: that the Bears are about where they were always going to be, except with a couple of unforeseen crises to navigate.

Continued turbulence seems likely given the Bears’ next six games: one against the 6-3 Green Bay Packers, two against the 8-1 Detroit Lions, two against the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings, one against the 5-4 San Francisco 49ers.

The full Pick Six lineup this week:

• Bears’ dynamics
• Is a Chiefs loss even possible?
• Steelers–Commanders shifting outlooks
• On Burrow’s bad late-game record
• Hand the MVP to Lamar? Let’s check
• 2-minute drill: Cardinals new Lions?

1. Eberflus might need to change coordinators to buy time for himself, which is tough for a team already on its sixth offensive coordinator in the past 10 seasons.

Caleb Williams’ selection by the Bears with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft brought into focus games against Washington and its rookie QB, Jayden Daniels, and New England with Drake Maye. The Bears enjoyed big advantages over those rebuilding teams because their general manager (Ryan Poles) and coach (Eberflus) had a two-year head start in building their roster. But they are 0-2 against the Commanders and Patriots, and they scored 18 total points in those two supposed showcase games.

The Bears were fortunate Sunday they were facing the Patriots, who managed only four field goals and a 2-yard touchdown pass on a day when Chicago exceeded 21 yards on just one of 11 possessions. The Bears had 142 total yards, their eighth-lowest total in 405 regular-season and postseason games since 2000, per TruMedia. The score could have been much worse against a quality team. Chicago’s streak of 23 drives without a touchdown is their second-longest in a season since 2005 (the team went 24 drives without a TD in 2017 when then-rookie No. 2 pick Mitchell Trubisky was behind center).

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GO DEEPER

The Bears offense is broken. They can’t afford to let it break Caleb Williams, too

We are only a few months removed from a range of NFL analysts suggesting Williams might be walking into a better situation than any quarterback picked first overall had ever encountered. Now, we sift through the wreckage.

• Coordinator dynamics: Shane Waldron is nine games into what the Bears hoped would be a prosperous long-term partnership with rookie No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. Would the Bears really make a change this early?

“Their offense is so bad,” an exec from another team said. “Eberflus is already on the edge because of his answer on the Hail Mary (touchdown allowed against Washington). He is going to have to act on Waldron to take some of the heat off, or they could all be swept out.”

“We’re looking at everything,” Eberflus said when asked about changing play callers.

Waldron is the Bears’ sixth offensive coordinator in the past 10 seasons and the second since Eberflus arrived in 2022 (Eberflus’ first OC, Luke Getsy, lasted nine games in the role with Las Vegas this season before the Raiders fired him last week).

The Seattle Seahawks ranked 13th in offensive EPA per play over Waldron’s 2021-23 tenure there, including No. 10 last season. The Bears rank 26th through Sunday, one spot behind the Denver Broncos with rookie first-round pick Bo Nix. The Bears are 4-5, a half-game worse than the Broncos with Nix. But Chicago has lost three consecutive games featuring the Hail Mary crisis at Washington, an exceedingly rare 53-yard touchdown run allowed right before halftime at Arizona and the 142-yard debacle Sunday.

Eberflus’ record is now 14-29 (.326).

With Williams taking 38 sacks — fifth-most through nine games for any quarterback within a single season since 1970, according to Pro Football Reference — culpability extends beyond coaching.

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GO DEEPER

Greenberg: After 9 games, we’ve reached the ‘fire everybody’ stage for the Chicago Bears

• Poles’ line: Williams took nine sacks Sunday behind an offensive line missing both starting tackles and last-minute surprise injury scratch Nate Davis. The line has struggled even when healthy.

“This is the best (line) depth I’ve ever had,” Poles told reporters in late August. “I actually let one of the guys go on cutdowns, and I was like, ‘Man, you did an excellent job. I wish we could keep you here.’ … Obviously, you want your starting five to be healthy and ready to go, but I feel more confident in the depth of our offensive line than I ever have before.”

Williams’ tendency toward holding the football instead of getting the ball out quickly was a concern. It’s been a factor in some of the sacks. But his 3.12-second average time to throw or sack does not lead the league. It ranks eighth. Still, Williams’ 38 sacks are one more than fellow first-round rookies Daniels (20) and Nix (17) have taken in 20 combined starts, despite Nix holding the ball a tick longer than Williams on average (3.13 seconds).

The Bears, like the Patriots, followed their selection of a quarterback early in the 2024 draft by targeting wide receivers with their next picks. Chicago selected Rome Odunze at No. 9. New England selected Ja’Lynn Polk at No. 37. Both teams circled back to select offensive linemen later. It was the reverse of the tack the Los Angeles Chargers took under their new coach, former Bears quarterback Jim Harbaugh, who selected tackle Joe Alt at No. 5 before taking receiver Ladd McConkey at No. 34.

Alt was not available to the Bears or Patriots after they selected quarterbacks at No. 1 and No. 3, respectively. Chicago and New England would have had to target less-acclaimed linemen if they wanted to prioritize blocking for their quarterbacks in the draft. The symbolism was still notable with both teams’ lines struggling terribly.

• Wait, this is a crisis? OK, so the Bears have a 4-5 record with a rookie quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, with an offensive line they thought would be better than evaluators from other teams expected it to be.

Look around the NFC North. Jared Goff and Sam Darnold combined to toss eight interceptions Sunday. Jordan Love has thrown so many picks that his coach bristles at the mere mention of them during news conferences. Williams is just starting out, and his level of production is not so unusual.

The table below shows nine-game production for all the QBs drafted No. 1 overall since 2000, provided they started their teams’ first nine games as rookies. It’s a mishmash of players with records and passer ratings worse than those for Williams, whose EPA figures are worse because of the sacks, which are obviously a problem.

These Bears resemble the Jacksonville Jaguars, another team that embraced expectations that it would be good, without ever having been good. How shocked should anyone really be based on what could be verified? Probably not very shocked, but the presumption here is that Chicago expected to be much better. Which leads us to the touchy subject reporters hammered Eberflus about during his postgame news conference.

• Organizational dynamics: The Bears’ decision to stick with Eberflus after they posted the NFL’s third-worst record (10-24) across his first two seasons reflected a desire to maintain continuity after Chicago won four of its final six games last season. The Eberflus-led defense ranked third in EPA per play across November and December, after acquiring end Montez Sweat. The decision was made to find a new offensive coordinator. Now, here we are.

Execs around the league think a Bears structure featuring an empowered, engaged team president (Kevin Warren) all but rules out the possibility Chicago would seek established power coaches, even though such candidates would likely handle a market as tough as Chicago more comfortably than Eberflus has or the next hot coordinator might.

“The GM won’t want to fire the coach unless the president is on board with that, and the president is not going to turn the reins over to a proven coach,” one exec predicted. “Their structure definitely defines how much oxygen is left in the room, and there is not a lot. You are not going to get a big fish.”

That would point toward Chicago pursuing any number of the young offensive coordinators enjoying strong seasons. The Lions’ Ben Johnson or the Houston Texans’ Bobby Slowik were hot names entering this season. Tampa Bay’s Liam Coen, Atlanta’s Zac Robinson, Arizona’s Drew Petzing, Buffalo’s Joe Brady fit the mold as younger coordinators leading offenses currently ranked among the top 10 in EPA per play (Philadelphia’s offense ranks 11th under first-year coordinator Kellen Moore). It feels early to start walking down that road.

“Half the league wants to be 4-5,” a coach from another team said. “What’s more interesting is the nosedive after the Hail Mary. Is this thing free-falling? Have they taken a cannonball blast and they just cannot stop the water? That is more interesting than, ‘OK, if they make a move, who would it be?’”

A word of warning to any future Bears coaching candidates: This job might not be the best situation a new coach has ever walked into.

2. The Chiefs already have as many close-game victories as the 1972 Dolphins and 2007 Patriots had combined. What will it take for this team to lose?

The Chiefs’ 14-game winning streak dating to last season and counting playoffs was about as imperiled as it could have been when Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz lined up for a 35-yard try on the final play Sunday.

The Chiefs led, 16-14, but NFL kickers over the past 10 seasons had made 94 percent of their tries from exactly 35 yards entering Week 10. That’s 262 makes in 280 tries, with only three of the 280 kicks blocked.

NOT IN OUR HOUSE pic.twitter.com/CnXgKHl3jU

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 10, 2024

The Chiefs’ Leo Chenal blocked the kick to secure a 9-0 start. Kansas City is 7-0 this season in games decided by seven or fewer points. The 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 Patriots, the only teams in the Super Bowl era to go unbeaten for a full regular season, combined for a 7-0 record in games decided by seven or fewer points. The Chiefs are living much closer to the edge through nine games than those teams lived over their full seasons.

Close-game regular-season W-L comp

The seven-point cutoff allows for an across-eras comparison with the 1972 Dolphins, who did not have two-point conversions available to them.

That the Chiefs already have as many close-game victories in nine games as the 1972 Dolphins and 2007 Patriots had in a combined 30 regular-season games suggests this Kansas City win streak will soon end — perhaps at Buffalo in Week 11.

Before Sunday, teams had a 1-54 record this season when finishing with negative EPA on both offense and defense. The Chiefs bucked that trend as well in beating Denver. They are now 2-11 in those games since Andy Reid became coach in 2013. Both victories were against the Broncos, including 30-27 at Denver in 2016, when the Chiefs won on special teams with Tyreek Hill’s 86-yard kickoff return, a recovered muffed punt in the fourth quarter and Denver’s missed 62-yard kick in overtime.

This was oh-so-close to becoming a signature victory for Broncos coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The game played out almost exactly how the Broncos wanted it to play out, as Payton said afterward, and Denver still lost.

#BroncosCountry LIVE: HC Sean Payton meets the media after #DENvsKC

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 10, 2024

Is some sort of inexplicable Bills meltdown awaiting next week, with the Chiefs appearing so vulnerable? Or will the odds finally catch up to Kansas City?

3. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 28-27 victory over the Commanders seemed affirming for both teams, but it’s worth raising some questions about staying power for Washington.

• Commanders outlook: After the Ravens handed the Commanders a 30-23 defeat in Week 6, a coach from another team suggested Baltimore had played Washington rookie sensation Jayden Daniels in a physical manner that other teams might replicate. Daniels suffered injured ribs against Carolina the next week. Washington has changed its usage patterns with Daniels, whose production has fallen off, but the Commanders still almost beat a tough Steelers team Sunday.

Daniels rushed 52 times for 306 yards and four touchdowns in Washington’s first five games this season. He has 25 carries for 166 yards and no touchdowns since then, a streak that began against Baltimore.

Jayden Daniels’ 2024 Splits

Weeks	1-5	6-10
Games (W-L)	5 (4-1)	5 (3-2)
Cmp-Att	101-131	79-131
Cmp%	77.1%	60.3%
Pass Yards	1,135	1,012
Yards/Att	8.7	7.7
TD-INT	4-2	5-0
Rating	106.3	97.2
Sacked	12	8
Sack %	8.4%	5.8%
EPA/Pass Play	+0.30	+0.13
Designed Rushes	24	11
Scrambles	28	14
Rushes-Yds-TD	52-306-4	25-166-0
QB EPA	57.9	16.2
Pass EPA/Game	10.2	3.9

It’s going to be an interesting dance for Washington down the stretch as the Commanders try to keep Daniels healthy while still maximizing his dual-threat abilities.

“We will see if it is sustainable over multiple years,” the coach said.

The Commanders, 7-2 at the trade deadline and 7-3 after Sunday, acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans after proving their ceiling was higher this season than anticipated.

But with Daniels rushing only three times for 5 yards against the Steelers, Washington managed only 242 yards, including 60 on the ground (starting running back Brian Robinson was out injured). Is this just a temporary step backward while Daniels gets healthy, or will it be part of a broader late-season trend? Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals averaged 25.0 offensive points per game in games 1-8, but only 20.9 thereafter, partly because of quarterback attrition.

• Steelers outlook: This was a great victory for Pittsburgh and especially for quarterback Russell Wilson. If Wilson wasn’t quite as good as perceived in his first two starts, both Steelers victories, he seemed to play better than his stat line for most of this game against the Commanders.

His winning 32-yard touchdown pass to the newly acquired Mike Williams put a punctuation mark on what could otherwise be undersold as a 14-of-28 passing day. His lone interception was on a third-and-14 deep ball that approximated a punt and cost Pittsburgh only 0.4 EPA, making this Wilson’s least consequential pick since 2018.

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GO DEEPER

Steelers’ new-look offense proves it can finally carry the defense when needed

Wilson has finished with at least 0.14 EPA per pass play in all three starts for the Steelers. That ties the third-longest streak of Wilson’s career within a single season. He had a seven-game streak in 2015, a six-game streak in 2012 and a five-game streak in 2013. His last three-game streak was back in 2018. Former Steelers starter Justin Fields has never had more than two such games consecutively during his career, and he had just one such game for Pittsburgh (against the Chargers in Week 3).

The Steelers, with a defense ranked sixth in EPA per play, will win many games if they play as efficiently in the passing game as they have since Wilson took over.

4. The Bengals are now 1-10 with Joe Burrow when trailing by one score and taking over possession with 1-8 minutes left in regulation. Here’s what that does and does not mean, and what must change.

Quarterbacks play outsized roles in team success, especially in high-leverage moments late in games, so team results do begin to define the individual QB once the sample size grows large enough. I don’t think we are to that point with Burrow, even though his Tier 1 status does appear incongruent with that 1-10 record in those situations.

Reminder: Joe Burrow has 1 win in the NFL when trailing in the last 8:00.

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) November 8, 2024

The above post from NFL analyst Scott Kacsmar flagging Burrow’s poor record in these games invited a closer look.

Since entering the NFL in 2020, Burrow is one of 26 quarterbacks with at least 50 combined regular-season and postseason pass attempts in games when his team took possession with 1-8 minutes remaining and while trailing by 1-8 points. These quarterbacks have won 34.6 percent of the time, with 22 of them winning at a higher rate than Burrow. Tom Brady (6-5) and Patrick Mahomes (8-7) are the only two with winning records in these games since Burrow entered the league. But even the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones (4-9) has won more than Burrow, a big red flag.

When we examine statistical production for these 26 quarterbacks in these high-leverage situations, Burrow ranks first among them in EPA per pass play. He has completed 44 of 74 passes (60 percent) for 653 yards (8.8 per attempt) with six touchdowns, one interception and a 109.8 passer rating in these situations. Those numbers do not reflect a player struggling in these situations.

Against Baltimore on Thursday night, Burrow led two touchdown drives in the final 8:00 when his team needed a touchdown to tie or take the lead. The table below shows career touchdown drive rates for Burrow and three other acclaimed quarterbacks in these “need TD” situations: trailing by 4-8 points when taking over possession with 1-8 minutes left in regulation. Burrow’s touchdown drive rate before Thursday night was 43 percent, in line with the others. That jumped to 55 percent, best among the four, after the game against Baltimore.

Career ‘Need TD’ Drive Success Rate

QB	Drives (TD)	TD Rate
	9 (5)	56%
	11 (6)	55%
	10 (4)	40%
	10 (3)	30%

If Burrow and the Bengals’ offense were poor in these situations, that would show up in drive results.

The Bengals’ 35-34 defeat to Baltimore could offer a window into what might be broader team-oriented issues.

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GO DEEPER

‘Never in a million years’: How the Bengals wasted latest Burrow-Chase masterpiece

My overall impression of the Bengals on offense is that they pass too frequently, sacrificing game control in critical situations, and could do a better job of managing the clock. Having an offensive play-calling head coach carries advantages, but it can complicate a team’s efforts to keep sometimes competing priorities in balance.

Cincinnati’s overall pass orientation shows up in their high ranking on the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential exert more influence on tendencies. The Bengals rank first this season and among the NFL’s top three since Burrow entered the league. They want to throw the ball. Bigger-picture decisions, such as deciding against keeping running back Joe Mixon, could influence and/or reflect this orientation.

As for game management, it’s a million times easier to lay out critiques on the internet than it is to execute under the pressure of time in actual game situations. I don’t pretend to be an expert in game-management intricacies, but in speaking with veteran coaches who reviewed the Thursday night game, some points stood out.

• The good: Cincinnati, anticipating a shootout, brought a four-down mentality. The Bengals went for it four times overall. That included three times when they were tied or leading, with two of those when more than a yard was needed for a first down. Those totals tied single-game highs since Zac Taylor became coach. Cincinnati also went for a two-point conversion in the final minute when an extra point would have tied the game. The Bengals were committed to an aggressive approach, which made sense.

• The questionable: Cincinnati left ample time for Jackson and Baltimore’s offense late in both halves when preferable options were available. In the second quarter, their quick timeout usage left Jackson with 0:30 on the clock, needing to travel about 30 yards to get a field-goal try. Their final drive took the clock from 1:49 to 0:42 before the Bengals scored a touchdown. Passing every down once the Bengals reached the Baltimore 12-yard line with 0:59 left allowed the Ravens to save timeouts.

“They have to force Baltimore to take a timeout (to compromise a potential Ravens rebuttal drive), or if they do not call timeout, they can control the two-point play being the last play of the game,” a coach said. “This is all easy with a remote in your hand and the luxury of time, but when you look at that game, you do think, ‘Great player in Joe Burrow, great player in Ja’Marr Chase, putting deodorant over a lot of that.’”

5. As the Lamar Jackson MVP train chugs on, we provide historical context and consider how this Baltimore Ravens offense might actually improve.

We can’t quite hand a third MVP trophy to Jackson with seven games remaining in his season, but we can certainly compare his 10-game production to the 10-game output for past winners of the award. Jackson fits in nicely.

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The chart above shows Jackson’s EPA on pass plays and rushes compared to the 10-game output for all MVP winners since 2000, per TruMedia. Red bars highlight Jackson’s current season and his past two MVP seasons. Gray bars highlight output on rushes and receptions for the four running backs to win the award since then (Marshall Faulk in 2000, Shaun Alexander in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Adrian Peterson in 2012).

Jackson’s 127 EPA this season is the ninth-best 10-game total among these 24 previous MVP winners, a tick behind his 127.2 total to this point in his 2019 MVP season.

Below, we see the 10-game production for Jackson and the five other MVP quarterbacks with at least 127 EPA through 10 games since 2000 (Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers appear twice). Red bars show how those other quarterbacks finished their seasons before winning MVP. Jackson might need to keep producing near these levels to overcome a shaky Ravens defense.

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Jackson made spectacular plays in the Ravens’ 35-34 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night.

pic.twitter.com/cOJRWNC7tw

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) November 8, 2024

The tip-toeing tightrope of a run along the sideline after he retreated 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, then gained 10 yards to the Cincinnati 1, bordered on absurd. The across-his-body, jump-shot touch pass for a late lead-taking touchdown scored style points for the pass itself and for the way he retreated afterward.

A more routine touchdown pass to tight end Mark Andrews could be the most exciting one for the Ravens longer term.

Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson are always on the same page.

Mark said this was a “mesh” concept from the Bengals. He improvised to take it over the top and Lamar saw the same. pic.twitter.com/YreYNdWrJe

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) November 8, 2024

This play showcased Andrews’ return to health after missing six games due to a broken leg and injured ankle last season, after Andrews did not look anything close to his old self early in the season. Andrews’ long-established rapport with Jackson and more recent resurgence have added to the growth potential for Baltimore’s offense, which is the 20th since 2000 to average at least 30 points per game through the first 10 games of a season.

Ravens offensive production thru 10 games

Season	2019	2024
PPG	30.6	31.2
First Downs	243	239
TD	36	39
Pass TD	20	24
Rush TD	16	14
EPA	116.6	116.2
EPA/Play	0.17	0.19
Yards/Game	437.7	449.6
RB Rush Yds	1171	1232
QB Rush Yds	798	545

The 2019 Ravens are also in that 30-plus club, with production nearly matching the 2024 team. Jackson, the primary link between those offenses, is producing as well as ever.

6. Two-minute drill: Here’s what the Jonathan Gannon-coached Arizona Cardinals have in common with the Dan Campbell-coached Detroit Lions.

Gannon, hired before the 2023 season, had a 5-16 record through his first 21 games. He has a 5-1 record since then, beating the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins (with Tua Tagovailoa), Chicago Bears and New York Jets. The last two victories, over the Bears and Jets, were by a 60-15 combined mark. Arizona could be turning a corner.

Campbell started 4-16-1 in his first 21 games with the Lions and has gone 28-11 since then.

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Are the Lions Super Bowl favorites? Or are they still a move away? Sando’s Pick Six

The similarities do not stop there:

• Campbell was mocked early in his tenure for saying he wanted his team, after getting knocked down, to “bite a kneecap off” on the way back up. Gannon was mocked early in his tenure for a “cringe” pep talk in which he asked players if they had taken the bus to work, then informed them he was “looking for f—— killers.”

Light The Fire

Head Coach Jonathan Gannon sets the tone for the team and his coaching staff in the latest episode of Cardinals Flight Plan, “Coach and the Coordinators” Tonight at 7 on YouTube. pic.twitter.com/3Xwuv6lVUE

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) August 31, 2023

• Both coaches’ starting quarterbacks had played well enough previously to earn top-of-market contracts, before faltering enough to see their reputations bottom out. Jared Goff (despite his five-interception game Sunday night) is flourishing in Detroit. Kyler Murray, slammed for having a “homework clause” written into (and later out of) his contract, seems to have matured. He turned memes about his supposedly overboard affinity for the “Call of Duty” franchise into a sponsorship deal with the video game. It has worked because Murray, healthy after missing much of last season with a torn ACL, has 12 touchdown passes and four rushing touchdowns against six turnovers (three interceptions) this season. His 100.8 passer rating would be a career high over a full season, as would his 0.13 EPA per pass play.

• Both coaches work with general managers poached from Super Bowl teams (Brad Holmes in Detroit, Monti Ossenfort in Arizona). Both GMs used their first draft choices for offensive tackles (Penei Sewell in Detroit, Paris Johnson in Arizona).

• Both coaches trusted first-time coordinators on both sides of the ball. We’ve heard lots about Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and more lately about his defensive counterpart, Aaron Glenn. If Arizona keeps winning, we’ll hear more about offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, 37, and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, 31. The Cardinals rank 10th in offensive EPA per play. They are 24th on defense, including 15th during the current 5-1 run.

• Both coaches took over historically losing franchises and started poorly enough to hear “same old Lions” and “same old Cardinals” without having anything substantive to say in rebuttal until well into their second seasons. Gannon’s 5-16 mark was tied for the eighth-worst through 21 games for any coach hired since 2000. Campbell was 4-19-1 with Detroit before turning things around.

After a wild victory over the Texans on Sunday night, the Lions are 8-1, which is not shocking after Detroit reached the NFC Championship Game last season. They are in Campbell’s fourth season and well ahead of the Cardinals, who have much work ahead of them to replicate the turnaround Campbell has led in Detroit.

Arizona is 6-4 and fourth in the conference heading into its bye, with the following schedule waiting on the other side: Seattle and Minnesota on the road, followed by Seattle and New England at home, followed by Carolina and the Rams on the road, followed by San Francisco at home.

Murray’s mobility differentiates Arizona from Detroit, opening different ways to win games. Think Seattle during the Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson years a decade ago, or even the Steelers with Wilson now, to an extent.

“They are a physical team,” an exec said of Arizona. “They are not the prettiest team, but they run the ball, they hit on defense and they have a quarterback who is going to run around and make something happen. You can win a lot of games that way.”

• Cowboys’ home futility: The Cowboys are bad enough overall to struggle regardless of venue, especially without quarterback Dak Prescott, but they made some home-field history with a 34-6 defeat to Philadelphia on Sunday. Dallas’ minus-94 differential at home is the sixth-worst in NFL history through a team’s first four home games, per Pro Football Reference.

The worst: Cleveland (-114 in 1975), Miami (-113 in 2019), Jacksonville (-110 in 2013), Atlanta (-107 in 1966) and Cincinnati (-100 in 1999). Dallas’ previous worst was -88 in 1960, the first year of the franchise, when the team finished 0-11-1 with quarterback Eddie LeBaron tossing a league-high 25 interceptions.

Tom Landry, then in his first year as Cowboys coach, would become a towering figure in Dallas. But as the day went Sunday, the Cowboys reduced him to a toweling figure when, in a tribute on a stadium video board, they misspelled his name. “Tom Laundry,” the video board read, per David Moore of the Dallas Morning News.

The terrible results at home this season did not stop the sun from shining on the Cowboys, at least.

A frustrated Jerry Jones had some comments about the sun impacting play at AT&T Stadium: “By the way, we know where the sun is going to be when we decide to flip the coin or not. We do know where the damn sun is going to be in our own stadium.”

Why not put up curtains over the… pic.twitter.com/28skNrZYBq

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 11, 2024

What could be more surreal than owner Jerry Jones addressing sun-related vision problems in a 34-6 home defeat? How about coach Mike McCarthy, who does not have a contract beyond this season, catching strays (or possibly no strays) from Micah Parsons?

Micah Parsons said coaches aren’t his top worry as Cowboys season spirals.

“Mike can leave and go wherever he wants. Guys I kind of feel bad for (are) guys like Zack Martin & guys who might be on their last year or on their way out. Because that’s who I wanted to hold the trophy…

— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) November 11, 2024

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Cowboys won’t fire Mike McCarthy midseason: Jerry Jones

• Eagles surge: Elsewhere in the NFC East, the Eagles have won five in a row, mostly against poor teams, and now face a three-game stretch against Washington (home), the Rams (road) and Ravens (road). The next two are in prime time and will give Philly a chance to assert itself as a top team.

Will the Eagles have to contend with Daniels in full dual-threat mode, or will Washington continue to limit its quarterback’s exposure? Philly has to like drawing both Daniels matchups in the season’s second half, giving coordinator Vic Fangio 10 games to study.

• Deebo’s attack: 49ers kicker Jake Moody hitting the game-winning kick against Tampa Bay after missing three tries had San Francisco on an emotional rollercoaster. Receiver Deebo Samuel going after Moody on the sideline, only to have snapper Taybor Pepper intervene, showed how chaotic things can get on a sideline.

The Seahawks experienced a similar situation this season when defensive linemen Derick Hall and Jarran Reed fought on the sideline during a 31-10 home defeat to Buffalo. The difference for San Francisco was that Moody, as a kicker, seemingly could be more prone to having such a situation unnerve him. His game-winner showed otherwise, and Moody said he didn’t need an apology.

“He was telling him to lock in. We know what our job is…. As a young developing specialist like Jake is, I don’t know how much better it gets than missing three straight & having to step up & hit an almost 50-yard game winner. I’m super proud of Jake.”

Taybor Pepper on the… pic.twitter.com/4wDxfXH6kb

— KNBR (@KNBR) November 10, 2024

The missed kicks contributed to San Francisco finishing with -12.4 EPA on special teams, their seventh-worst showing in a game since 2000, counting playoffs. Their worst game was in Week 4 against New England (-15.7). Largely because of those games, the 49ers rank last in special-teams EPA this season.

• Sticking with Flacco: Indianapolis is 0-2 while ranking 29th in EPA per play on offense in two games since replacing Anthony Richardson with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but coach Shane Steichen said Indy will stick with Flacco for now.

Flacco’s three interceptions Sunday cost the Colts 16.8 EPA in a game the team lost by 10 points, 30-20, at home to Buffalo. Last season with Cleveland, Flacco had a three-pick game with -21.8 EPA on his interceptions. That was the eighth-most EPA lost in 101 total three-pick games since 2000, per TruMedia.

• Speaking of three-pick games: Sam Darnold had one for the Vikings and lived to enjoy a 12-7 victory over the Jaguars. Coach Kevin O’Connell credited the Vikings’ defense for winning the game, promised the offense would start finding the end zone again and turned to Darnold with a message: “Sam, everybody in this locker room knows, you are the f—— guy that is going to take us there.”

Are you buying that, Vikings fans?

Darnold has five interceptions in his past two games. His defense, which overtook the Los Angeles Chargers to rank No. 1 in EPA per play through Week 10, might be able to overcome a few more picks against Tennessee and Chicago over the next two weeks.

Never flinched.#Skol pic.twitter.com/oQAQvvamEB

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 10, 2024

(Photo of Caleb Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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