Trump started the rally but he could also halt it

November 11

A trader wears a hat in support of Republican Donald Trump, after he won the U.S. presidential election, at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024.

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Milestones for U.S. indexes All major U.S. indexes rose on Friday. During the trading session, the S&P 500 briefly traded above 6,000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 44,000, new milestones for both. Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Monday on disappointment over China’s latest measures and soft inflation reading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell as much as 2.5% before recovering slightly

China inflation and retail sales China’s consumer price index for October rose 0.3% from a year earlier, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. That’s lower than the 0.4% increase that was expected. Meanwhile, China’s efforts to raise birth rates aren’t sufficient, analysts told CNBC in a story published on Singles’ Day, a massive Chinese shopping event that celebrates singles. A fast-aging population and slow price increases mean retail sales on Nov. 11 may disappoint those in the industry.

New record for bitcoin Bitcoin is trading at $80,869.33, according to Coin Metrics. That’s the first time the cryptocurrency has broken the $80,000 barrier. Traders think bitcoin will soar even higher. They piled more than $2.8 billion into the options market, betting that bitcoin’s price will go beyond $90,000.

$1 trillion market cap for Tesla Tesla’s market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion on Friday after an electrifying rally last week, ignited by Donald Trump’s victory, that pushed up its shares 29%. It’s now up 30% year to date. Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk endorsed the idea, raised by Sen. Mike Lee, of allowing presidents to intervene in Federal Reserve policy.

[PRO] Eyes on inflation data After a hot week in the stock market, spurred by the election of Trump as the next U.S. president and the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points, inflation prints this week will determine if the buoyance in markets can continue. CNBC Pro’s Sarah Min gives a recap of what happened last week and what to look forward to this week.

The bottom line

When the numbers are this good, you’ve got to start with them.

For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 4.66%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.61% and the Nasdaq Composite popped 5.74%. If that’s impressive, consider this: The small-cap Russell 2000 surged 8.57%.

The markets have Trump to thank for that.

“Equities are eager to price in Trump’s domestic growth policies,” Barclays strategist Venu Krishna said in a note to clients.

That’s most evident in the outsized bump in the Russell 2000 compared with other indexes. Smaller companies tend to be more tied to the domestic economy, which is the focus of Trump’s pledges.

Small-cap companies also have more floating rate debt. With the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, the debt burden on small caps will be reduced, leading to higher profits.

The road ahead, however, might not be as smooth.

Of the S&P companies that reported this earnings season, 84% beat expectations on profit. But their revenue “is more subdued, where the proportion of companies beating sales estimates has stayed weak,” JPMorgan Strategist Mislav Matejka wrote in a Friday note. And corporate financials, fundamentally, are what drive the stock market.

The economy could experience some speed bumps too. Policies proposed by Trump, such as higher tariffs and stricter immigration, might decrease growth and increase inflation, or at least slow down the pace of disinflation, said Barclays.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is also wary of inflation persisting. If tariffs become “tit for tat,” Kashkari said in an interview on Sunday, “that’s where it becomes more concerning.”

The Fed, in response to that, could space out its rate cuts even more.

While the Trump rally has gotten off to a roaring good start, it remains to be seen when — and more importantly, how — it’ll end.

— CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Yun Li, Jesse Pound and Hakyung Kim contributed to this report.

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